Lozza was written just for fun and you can play her here:-
She is not a very strong young engine at the moment, but hopefully she will improve with age; probably about 2000 as of v1.10 in Oct 2014.
An agent based infection model. No maths! The outcome is implicit in the movement and contact properties. Continue reading
I was humbled and honoured to be presented with a National RYA Award by HRH Princess Royal in November 2013. See this Yachts and Yachting news item.
A little demo to show how people are indirectly protected in an epidemic when enough people are vaccinated – herd immunity.
It should work on touch and non touch devices including phones; the layout being responsive to screen size.
The demo is not suitable for thinking about the elimination of a disease in an endemic steady state. It is rooted in an epidemic context.
We were a bit drunk post race recently (I was drinking Strongbow) and wanted a simple phone app that would allow us to see who won the racing. We didn’t want to type in using the keyboard. I came up with Sailbow a few days later. It only works with touch devices and Is available on the web at this URL:-
Note that the demo is available in a number of languages because the google translation is not great. if you are willing to translate into another language please contact me; thanks.
Sailwave is a Windows sailing scoring program that I began developing in 2001. It is now used by thousands of clubs/events all over the world – and at all levels of the sport, including Olympic test events.
It was created primarily with parents and parents-to-be in mind – to help them navigate past the mass of vaccine misinformation on the internet.
The model implements these standard iterative equations for S, I and R:-
s’ = s – cis/t – bs + bt – vbt + wi
i’ = i + cis/t – ki -bi
r’ = r + ki – br + vbt – wi Continue reading
Once upon a time, not so very long ago, and not so very far away, there was a wonderful world called Cloud. At the centre of Cloud stood the great city of Ppouc and scattered around it were many smaller towns and villages.
This is a tidy-up of a comment I posted on homeopath Steve Scrutton’s blog.
Steve, you don’t seem to understand what a denial means.
Imagine somebody (a he in this case) who anecdotally helps people by playing the piano. This goes on for years. People listen to the music and often feel better – either then or a little while later. Every now and again somebody with a serious illness will get better – breast cancer say (relatively high remission rate) – and he makes sure the world knows about cases like that (selection bias). Continue reading
for 100 > x > 0 : 100 – x = 0
for V >> U & Iu >> Iv : VIv < UIu
if p(x) > 0 : p(x) = 1
if p(x) < 1 : p(x) = 0
One thing antivaxers have going for them over a science based argument, is playing the emotive card. Consider this from a debate I was involved in tonight:- Continue reading
It is not uncommon to see online discussions with arguments of the form “if your child is vaccinated, what risk is there from my unvaccinated child?”.
The fact is that while vaccines are generally very good, they are not 100% effective in terms of seroconversion rates. Some vaccinated individuals can still catch and transmit the diseases they have been vaccinated against; although often the symptoms are usually less severe than in the unvaccinated case. Continue reading
Many vaccination resources are entrenched in ideology and bias. Some are easy to spot with their emotional but anecdotal stories, conspiracy theories, logical fallacies and downright misinformation. Others have in initial air of respectability and may even appear to be science based, until you dig a little deeper and reveal that the science is cherry picked with studies that are methodologically weak, have since been retracted, or have subsequently been shown to have reached false conclusions. Continue reading
Thimerosal is a mercury based organic compound that is used both as a preservative in vaccines and as a sterilising agent during the vaccine manufacturing process.
With the exception of some multi-dose flu vaccines, thimerosal was removed as a preservative from all childhood vaccines in 2001, with the last expiry date being Jan 14 2003. It is however, still present as trace quantities of mercury in some childhood vaccines (e.g. DTaP vaccines) due to the manufacturing process:- Continue reading
Ayaan Hirsi Ali was once asked how to get through to Somali women that their life was one of total repression and she answered “dissonance”. Her idea being that if you repeatedly hit people with the truth, their beliefs may eventually crack – dissonance will accumulate until a point is reached that no amount of rationalising can support the root belief/bias/ideology. Continue reading
Like many anti-vaccination groups, the Australian Vaccination Network (AVN) presents itself as “pro-choice” or “informed decision” or “balanced” and at first glance the website seems to support that view, but dig a little deeper and their true orientation becomes clear. What for example is balanced about a tee-shirt that can be purchased in their online shop saying “Love them, Protect them, Never inject them”. Continue reading
The first of five Albumblatter (Album leaves) – part of Schumann’s Bunte Blatter (Colourful leaves) Op 99. It’s marked Ziemlich Langsam – quite slow or larghetto. Continue reading
My go at the theme from Schindler’s List, composed by John Williams. Not sure who did this piano arrangement though… Continue reading
Paul Offit et. al. review the evidence as to whether or not vaccinations overwhelm a child’s immune system, concluding:-
Current studies do not support the hypothesis that multiple vaccines overwhelm, weaken, or “use up” the immune system. On the contrary, young infants have an enormous capacity to respond to multiple vaccines, as well as to the many other challenges present in the environment. By providing protection against a number of bacterial and viral pathogens, vaccines prevent the “weakening” of the immune system and consequent secondary bacterial infections occasionally caused by natural infection. Continue reading
Much is often made of the fact that in a highly vaccinated context the number of infected vaccinated individuals can be greater than the number of infected unvaccinated individuals; the conclusion being that vaccination doesn’t work – but that conclusion is a logical fallacy. Continue reading
What a wonderful thing it is to be able to vaccinate our children, not just to protect them, but those around them that are too young to be completely vaccinated or cannot be vaccinated for heath reasons. What a wonderful gift herd immunity is to and from humanity. Yes there are risks of adverse reactions to vaccination but such risks are microscopic and completely outweighed by the benefits. Continue reading
Here’s my go at Scriabin’s prelude op 11 no 4. Once again, as with all Scriabin, I found the polyphony was tricky, even though the piece itself sounds so simple. Picking out the right hand where people usually left the left hand dominate was deliberate. Continue reading
Some nerd jokes inspired by Brian Mallow.
Three quarks walk into a bar. The barman shakes his head and says: “Sorry, we don’t serve quarks in here”. So they left en-mass. Continue reading
Joseph Mercola and Barbara Loe Fisher recently had a good old chinwag about vaccination, or to be more accurate anti-vaccination. They start with the recent news that the FDA have recommended that clinicians temporarily suspend use of Rotarix and end with a truly scary section in which they argue we’d be better off without some vaccines, including Rotarix.
There was even a horrific section on smallpox where Fisher used the ‘naturally falling mortality rate’ argument while conveniently ignoring incidence; a common ploy found all over antivax sites and the weird and wonderful outer fringes of medical journalism – JPANDS for example. Continue reading
This is a little waltz I composed a while ago as a valentine present for my wife – I was broke! My piano teacher decided to play it during one of his Christmas concerts – squeezed it in between some “proper pieces” and said that we seemed to get away with it… Continue reading
…well maybe not in this case! But after reading Marcus Du Sautoy’s brilliant book Music of the Primes a while ago, I decided to try a little composition. It’s called Panic, because that’s what it represented to one of the first people who listened to it – but I’m not clear if they meant as in trying to escape the noise or just the feeling it invoked and I decided not to ask! Continue reading